CLICK HERE TO MORE ABOUT THESE NFL PICKS The Colts clinched a first-round bye back in September, it seems, and just last week locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The other first-round bye is up for grabs in San Diego this weekend, as the Bengals visit the Chargers in a huge AFC showdown with major playoff implications.
With a win and a Denver loss, the Chargers win the AFC West; the Bengals can take the AFC North and control their playoff seed destiny with a win here.
With games against Kansas City and the Jets closing out the season, a win in San Diego could be crucial for the Bengals, especially coming off a loss in Minnesota.
We simulated the Chargers vs. Bengals 10,001 times to find the most likely winner; the Chargers won 57.2% of the time, by an average score of 23.5-19.5.
The Chargers will win with the help of Philip Rivers, who has yet to lose a December matchup in his NFL career. In our simulations, Rivers threw for an average of 267 yards and 1.7 TDs per game. The running game will likely fall flat for the Chargers, but credit Mike Zimmer's stellar run defense for that. Tomlinson and Sproles combined for under 70 yards on average in our simulated faceoffs.
Meanwhile, the Bengals' three-headed running game will likely be used to their benefit. Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott, and Larry Johnson carried the ball a combined 28 times for 125 yards in our mock matchups. But the Bengals' passing game struggled, as it has for most of the season.
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